The factors that drove the 14-fold increase in the price of uranium between 200 and 2007 are expected to help sustain continued spot market price increases over the next two years, according to several industry analysts. They including Macquarie Bank Ltd., Australia's biggest securities firm, UBS and RBC Capital Markets. Canadian-based Salman Partners in particular predicts that uranium prices could reach $200/lb in the next three to five years due to a lack of new mine supply. Australia and Canada are the world’s largest producers.
Global Demand Is Surging
Rapidly rising demand for a sustainable, environmentally safe source of electricity is driving the growth of nuclear power generation – which requires uranium. Improved reactor designs and operations, the absence of greenhouse gas emissions in nuclear power generation and fossil fuel depletion all contribute to making nuclear power a key part of a diverse mix to meet future energy needs.
Demand Already Outstrips Supply
Global demand for uranium for nuclear power generation is already outstripping supply and driving prices upwards. Demand is expected to out pace supply by 11% in the coming decade as a 15 year period of inventory liquidation has depleted stockpiles. Nuclear currently reactors generate only 18% of the world's electricity, a number that will rise significantly as countries turn to nuclear energy as a viable alternative to fossil fuels.
Worldwide, there are 430 nuclear reactors with a total output capacity of more than 350,000 megawatts (MWe) operating in 31 countries. Another thirty reactors are under construction, and another 70 are on the drawing board, most of them in the Asian region.
- China is building or planning 40 new nuclear reactors by 2015. China also plans to invest US$40 billion on nuclear generating capacity to provide electricity for its growing middle class and expanding economy.
- India is building or planning 31 new nuclear reactors by 2020.
- Russia is building or planning 25 more reactors by 2020. They are also cutting back exports by 25% to conserve fuel for the plants they will be building.
For an up-to-date list, visit the World Nuclear Association.
Nuclear power costs less
In addition to being cleanest, safest, and most efficient energy (electricity) source there is on a mass scale to offset the danger of climate change, it is also the least expensive. Nuclear plants are the lowest-cost producer of baseload electricity. The average production cost of $1.72 per kilowatt-hour includes the costs of operating and maintaining the plant, purchasing fuel and paying for the management of used fuel. That is a lower cost than other sources of power generation, including:
- coal at US$1.90 cents
- natural gas at US$5.87 cents
- oil at US$5.39 cents.
For more on relative costs, visit (www.nei.org)
For more on uranium and nuclear power generation, visit:
Uranium Information (www.uic.com)
International Atomic Energy Agency (www.iaea.org)
Nuclear Energy Association (www.cna.ca)
World Nuclear Association (www.world-nuclear.org) |
